What Happened on July 23–24?

Brent crude closed at $100.69 a barrel on July 23. On July 24 it eased to about $96.28 as China and Pakistan pushed diplomatic talks, but remained elevated for the week. Bitcoin traded near $64,100, so oil’s move below three digits did not immediately restore broad risk appetite.

💡 A one-day oil decline is not the same as the risk disappearing. As long as Strait of Hormuz, shipping and supply uncertainty remain, inflation and rate expectations can reprice quickly.

July 25–26 Update: No New Strike Does Not Mean Shipping Recovery

A Reuters-linked report said no new US strike on Iran was reported overnight for the first time in two weeks. That marks a slower immediate escalation tempo, but it is not a confirmed ceasefire and does not show that Hormuz or Red Sea shipping has normalized.

The same report said Houthi forces were still attacking Saudi Red Sea oil facilities. The supply-route risk therefore extends beyond Hormuz to facility security, vessel safety, insurance and freight. Confirm diplomatic de-escalation through safer physical passage, lower insurance and freight stress, and a sustained Brent pullback—not one strike-free night.

How Does Oil Reach Bitcoin?

The transmission chain
  1. War or shipping disruption raises crude and transport costs.
  2. Higher energy costs lift inflation expectations and complicate CPI disinflation.
  3. Markets price higher-for-longer Fed policy or renewed rate-hike risk.
  4. Treasury yields and the dollar rise, tightening global liquidity.
  5. High-beta assets—including technology stocks, altcoins and leveraged crypto positions—come under pressure.

What Do the ETF Flows Say?

Final July 23 data showed about $225.2 million of net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, ending seven consecutive inflow sessions totaling nearly $1 billion. Ether ETFs recorded about $26.3 million of net inflows. This does not prove institutions have permanently left, but it means Bitcoin near $64K lacked confirmation from persistent fund demand.

The weekend update added another negative session: Farside finalized July 24 Bitcoin ETF net flow at -$240.1 million (IBIT -$212.2 million and FBTC -$27.9 million), taking the two-day total to roughly -$465.3 million. Crypto Briefing reported about $70.7 million of Ether ETF outflows for July 24.

Net flow is the combined result across the funds; it does not mean every issuer sold, and one outflow day does not determine the next price move. Beginners should watch a multi-day trend. Read what ETF net flows mean.

Also separate AUM from flow. AUM is the current market value of fund assets and changes with both price and creations or redemptions; flow measures investor creations minus redemptions. Two outflow sessions are a short-term demand warning, not proof that long-term ETF adoption or institutional demand has collapsed.

Why Do PMI, the 10-Year Yield and FOMC Matter?

Preliminary July US manufacturing PMI was 53.8 and services PMI was 53.6, both above the 50 expansion line. Resilient activity is not inherently negative, but alongside expensive oil it can reduce the case for rapid Fed easing. The US 10-year Treasury yield near 4.679% raises the opportunity cost of holding volatile assets such as Bitcoin.

The next major event is the July 29 FOMC. Markets will compare the rate decision, statement and chair’s comments with expectations. Bitcoin’s FOMC risk comes from that expectations gap—not a simple rule that one policy outcome must make BTC rise or fall.

Is Bitcoin a Safe Haven?

Bitcoin has fixed-supply and non-sovereign properties in the long-term narrative. In short-term trading, however, it is still heavily influenced by dollar liquidity, ETF demand, leverage and broad risk appetite. A single day of resilience is not enough; look for multi-day relative strength and genuine spot demand.

Beginner Checklist

  • Does Brent move farther below $100, and does the weekly premium fade?
  • Do vessel passage, insurance and freight conditions improve across Hormuz and the Red Sea?
  • Does the 10-year yield fall from roughly 4.679%, and does the dollar weaken?
  • Do Bitcoin and Ether ETFs stop the multi-day outflow, rather than merely showing an AUM move?
  • Avoid high leverage around the July 29 FOMC statement.
⚠️ Oil, ETF flows and FOMC are risk variables, not standalone trading signals. Bitcoin is volatile; do not chase geopolitical headlines or use money you cannot afford to lose.

Read next: why crypto follows stocks, Bitcoin versus gold, and the latest CLARITY Act status.